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The Predicted Log – What is it ???
A Predicted Log Contest, (abbreviated PLC) is a competition among
boaters to demonstrate a Skipper’s knowledge of his boat and his
navigation and boat handling ability. A Skipper may choose any speed to
run the course (see "Hints and Tips" below) and even the size and type
of boat will not affect the results. (Usually, only power boats compete
because vessels under sail would be at a distinct disadvantage due to
major influences from the vagaries of wind and weather.) Any number of
people in almost any kind of power boat can compete. The event usually
is a friendly, social affair where everyone has lots of fun.
This is not a “race” in the usual sense. Boats don’t start together. The
Skipper (or “contestant”) may begin at his leisure, although it is
suggested that a vessel start at such a time that it will complete the
course by a prescribed time. There is a winner in each contest but
really no losers. All participants will learn much about charting,
piloting, seamanship and navigation as well as the nautical
characteristics of their vessel and their engines. Best of all, there
will be a lot of fun !
The basic rules of a PLC are simple. A committee will plan a course for
the participating boats to run that will be divided into two or more
“legs” between waypoints (usually buoys or channel markers) including
the starting and finishing points. The contestants will be given the
course as a “list” of a starting point, waypoints and a finishing point
on the morning of the event. The Skipper, using a chart and standard
charting implements, will then plot a course, determine the distance of
such course between each waypoint and choose a speed at which he/she
wishes to run the course. Some Marks will not be in line of sight so the
Skipper will need to "add" his personal waypoints to plot and navigate
the course. (Trial or “practice” runs over the specific course are
strictly forbidden. However, in learning about the speed characteristics
of his/her boat, the Skipper should have previously practiced and run
measured courses and should have discovered a comfortable speed that
his/her vessel operates consistently at a given engine or RPM setting.
Many Skippers will construct speed-engine setting (RPM) tables for
various settings.)
Using the “60 Dee Street” formula (60 D = ST), the contestant calculates
and predicts the time it will take for him/her to cover each leg of the
course. Because time results are usually in minutes and seconds, it may
be easier for some folks to use the formula 3600 D = ST to calculate
times in seconds rather than deal with decimal fractions of time when
using 60 D = ST.
In either formula, D = nautical (or statute miles), S = knots (or MPH)
and T = elapsed time. (Be consistent with either nautical or statute
measurements.) Rewriting the formula to calculate for time:
T(in minutes) = (60 X D)/ S or T(in seconds) = (3600 X D)/S.
Use of timing devices, watches, GPS, computer navigation program, loran, radio
direction finders, radar and speed determining and distance measuring
devices is not permitted by the skipper or crew during the running of any predicted log event.
Thus, the Skipper needs to know his/her vessel’s performance
characteristics at specific throttle settings and RPM(s). Tachometers
are permitted and can be quite useful. Wind factors and current, if any,
will have to be considered. To make things even more interesting, other
boat traffic, Rules of the Road, wake restrictions, etc., also have to
be considered.
Once the Skipper has determined his times to cover each leg, including
time taken to make any necessary turns at waypoints, he enters this
information into a form provided by the committee and files this form
with the “Official Scorer”. (The time predicted for a necessary turn may
be added to either the preceding or following leg at the Skipper’s
discretion.) The form is checked and then sealed so the predicted
information is kept secret until the finish of the event. Once filed,
information may not be changed. The Observer will be given a form in
which to record, in a table, the “Clock Times” from a watch or other
timing device to which only he/she will have access. This Observer may
be anyone with the ability to read and record clock times: a member of
another boat’s crew, a non-competing member of the squadron, or an
interested non-boater. The “Clock Times” will be the actual “reading” of
the time device in hours, minutes and seconds (as HH:MM:SS) when the
Skipper announces, “MARK” as he/she passes the “Start”, “Waypoint(s)”
and “Finish” points of the course. (Stop watches are not used due to
possibility of slight errors when timing multiple legs.) Upon completion
of the course, the Observer will submit the form with recorded “Clock
Times” to the “Official Scorer” who will then determine the percentage
error between the predicted and actual elapsed times for each leg. Each
leg is calculated separately, either on-time, fast or slow. All
percentage errors are cumulative and do not offset one another.
All of the contestants’ total error scores are then "ordered" and
compared, with the Skipper having the lowest cumulative error score
declared the winner.
Hints and Tips:
1) Prior to a PLC, practice with your boat using measured distances
(other than the actual course) with varying tachometer and/or throttle
settings. Calculate your boat speed using engine settings and times
required to cover known distances rather than using "speedometers".
2) Learn to “feel” how fast your boat is moving and recognize the
effects of wind, current and wave action on boat's speed.
3) Learn to compensate with the throttle (RPM settings) for varying degrees of
resistance to forward movement such as wind, waves, etc.
4) Choose any reasonable speed, however, remember that smaller time
errors will result in larger percentage errors at faster speeds while
steering accuracy along with environmental influences such as wind, wave and
wake action will have more effect on performance at very slow speeds.
It is advisable and
easier to use a constant speed for the entire course when predicting
times. (see hint # 11 below.)
5) Load boat similarly during actual PLC as when practicing and
calibrating tachometer with speed. (Remember, no practice runs over the
specific course) Weight and weight placement can be a factor in boat performance (especially
with lighter boats) so any practicing and calibrations should be done
with the boat loaded essentially the same as it will be during the
contest.
6) Keep boat accurately trimmed. Trimming will affect a boats
performance even more than a few pounds of weight so a skipper will need
to keep his boat trimmed at all times.
7) Know how your vessel operates in turns and calculate the degrees per
unit of time to complete a required turn. Add turn times to "leg times".
8) Add "self-selected" waypoints when prescribed consecutive course
Marks are not in "line of sight". Waypoints may be other Markers,
stationary buoys, or even plotted lines of position fixes with or
without compass bearings. Attempting to "guess at" distances and times
when line of sight legs are not present usually results in significant
errors!
9) Avoid conflicting boat traffic, especially fishing and sailing
vessels. If unplanned speed adjustments are required, try to estimate
amount and time of adjustment and then compensate for this adjustment as
soon as possible.
10) Tachometer(s), compass, charts, plotting instruments, depth sounder,
binoculars, pelorus, wind vane (but not anemometer), etc., are permitted
and may be useful for the Skipper to monitor navigation and boat's
performance during the event. At the Skipper’s discretion, one or more
passengers, other than the Observer, may aid in navigation but may not
have access to any of the prohibited equipment. A VHF radio may be used
to communicate with other boats for safety purposes but not for
directional or navigational advice.
11) Plan for an average Speed Over Ground (SOG) for the entire course.
Uncompensated slowing from the average SOG for a particular leg will
affect predicted times to complete that leg. Such slowing may be
accounted for in the "Added Seconds" column of the Speed-Time Calculator
sheet. Do not increase the planned average speed during the course
although a temporary increase in SOG may be necessary to compensate for
an unplanned slowing.
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Predicted Log Rules as run by LNSPS
Terms:
Skipper or Captain refers to the pilot and person in command of the
vessel and may be used interchangeably.
PLC refers to
Predicted Log Contest.
Observer is a person designated by the PLC committee or chosen by the
Skipper to be present on a participating vessel during the PLC with
certain duties as described below.
Course refers to the prescribed "legs" and direction of travel of the as
prepared by the PLC committee.
It is recommended that each PLC participating boat display a VSC decal
not more than one year old and that each passenger on a participating
vessel wear an appropriate USGC approved life preserver.
Speeds at which the course is to be run will be at Skipper’s discretion
but must be in accordance with good boating safety practices and
regulations.
The number of passengers aboard each boat will be at the Skipper’s
discretion but (including the Skipper and Observer) must be within the
capacity allowance (weight and number) for the boat involved with an
appropriate life preserver available for each person.
The morning of the predicted log event, each participant Skipper will be
provided an entry form containing the predicted log “Course” and two
time sheets upon which predicted times and “clock readings” for each leg
of the course can be entered. This entry form will indicate the “Start”
mark, one or more “Waypoint” marks and the “Finish” mark. The skipper
will be provided as much time as necessary to measure distances using
standard charting techniques, to lay out his/her route and necessary
turns and to calculate and predict the time it will take him/her to
complete each leg of the course. Turns, and times for such turns, may be
calculated by the skipper into his/her choice of selected course legs.
The skipper will enter pertinent identification information and record
his predicted times in the entry form then present it to a scoring
committee member for validation and sealing of his predictions. The
sealing will be done so that the form for the Observer’s entries will be
visible and available for entry of “clock times”. It is intended that
all “starts” will begin at such time that the last boat will finish no
later than 12:00 Noon.
Although the skipper may have familiarity with the planned course area,
specific knowledge of the course, pre-running the course or practicing
the course prior to the start the event is not permitted and will result
in disqualification of the participant. The skipper is required to pass
on the correct side of each mark or waypoint and within 75 yards of such
marks and will be required to yield to “inside” boats at a mark.
Additionally, the skipper is required to observe all the usual boating
safety and legal regulations, “Rules of the Road”, “No Wake
restrictions”, and general courtesies to other boats, especially fishing
and sail boats.
The Observer:
An impartial and unbiased Observer who should have no knowledge of any
predicted times shall accompany the participating Skipper during the
“run” of a PLC. This Observer will be responsible for recording only
observed times from a “clock reading” in hour, minute and second (HH:MM:SS)
for each time the skipper passes a check point and calls out “START”,
for the beginning, “MARK”, for waypoints and “FINISH”, for the end of a
course. It is highly recommended, to aid the Observer’s accuracy in
recording the clock time, that approximately 10 seconds prior to calling
out each checkpoint, the skipper shall announce, “Prepare to Mark”. At
the beginning of the contest for each boat, the Observer will notify the
skipper when he/she is ready to begin recording times, following which
it will be at the skipper’s discretion when he will pass the starting
and each subsequent mark. The Observer may not at any time, discuss the
times recorded or elapsed and, except in an emergency or in the presence
of danger, may not offer aid, suggestions or other assistance to the
skipper during the running of the event. The Observer will also be
responsible for assuring that no prohibited equipment is used during the
event. At the end of the run of the course and upon returning to the
originating dock, the Observer will present the official “scorer” with
the time sheet containing the “clock times” recorded during the
“run”. Calculations from clock times will then be performed to determine
the actual time for each leg.
Prohibited and Allowable Equipment:
No timing device, no GPS, computer navigation program, loran, radio
direction finder or radar and no speed determining device is permitted
during the running of any predicted log event. The skipper is required
to furnish a "mask" (such as a circle of opaque cardboard taped over the
speedometer) of other means of obscuring the display of any speed, GPS
or timing device (including an engine hour meter). The Observer will be
the only one on board permitted to have access to a time device.
Tachometer(s), compass, charts and plotting instruments, depth sounder,
binoculars, pelorus, wind vane (but not anemometer), etc., are
permitted. Such equipment allows the skipper to monitor his navigation
and the performance of his boat during the event. At the skipper’s
discretion, one or more of his/her passengers, other than the Observer,
may aid in navigation but may not have access to any of the prohibited
equipment. A VHF radio may be present and used to communicate with other
boats for safety purposes but not for directional or navigational
advice.
Time Out:
Situations may arise during a PLC that interrupts normal progress. It
may be an emergency or mechanical failure. Law enforcement authorities
may stop the boat for whatever reason. The Observer is allowed to take
this into consideration and record the precise times when the time out
began and ended. The committee will determine whether or not this time
out is allowed and not impose any time error.
Scoring:
Elapsed times for each leg of the course will be calculated separately.
The difference between the predicted time and the actual elapsed time
for each leg will be divided by the predicted time and multiplied by
100. This will result in the percent error for the leg. The percent
error for each leg, either fast or slow are additive and do not offset
each other. The total percentage error for each participant will then be
ordered with those of other participants to determine winning status
with the winner having the smallest total error from the predicted time.
Participation as the Skipper in a scheduled LNSPS Predicted Log event
during a given year will earn 2 points. Additional points shall be
awarded the skipper according to his/her standing in each event. Such
additional points earned will be based upon the number of participants
in the event run that day. (i.e. A winner in an event with five
participants will earn seven points and the last placed participant will
earn 2 points.). The total number of points accumulated within the year
will determine the yearly standing of a participant. The “skipper” with
the highest number of points for the year will awarded the year-end
trophy.
The following must be read and signed by the skipper prior to each
contest.
Participant Waiver:
I am entering this predicted log contest as a participant, at my
descretion and at my own risk and will save, hold harmless and indemnify
the Lake Norman Sail and Power Squadron, the United States Power
Squadrons and all such other clubs and or organizations that may be
sponsoring, hosting or sanctioning this contest together with the
officers, directors, committees and members, and hosts of this event
from any and all liability or responsibility of any nature whatsoever
for accidents, damage or injury to myself, my crew, my guests (including
my “Observer”) and my boat, persons or property, and I waive and
relinquish any claim I might have for injury or damage to myself or my
boat as against any such Squadron, Association and/or Club and/or their
officers, directors, committees, members and/or the hosts of this event.
I am fully aware that the International Rules of the Road must always be
followed and I certify that my boat will be operated in accordance with
best boating safety practices and in accordance with existing Federal
laws and the laws and regulations of the State of North Carolina and the
Lake Norman Marine Commission.
Print Name of
Captain____________________________________________________
Signed ____________________________________________________
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